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Election Results Belie Predictions as Power
Shifts to DemocratsAs close as Michigan’s gubernatorial race
was considered to be by both state and national experts, the actual results
of the November 7th election doesn’t speak to such predictions. In an
economic environment ripe for a power shift, Republican challenger Dick
DeVos was unsuccessful in convincing Michigan voters that his plan for
restructuring the state’s economy was superior to Governor Jennifer
Granholm’s.
The incumbent Governor was able to grab a statistically significant lead in
the polls in the final weeks leading up to the election. Throughout October,
Granholm held near double-digit leads in nearly every poll; in most
respects, an insurmountable margin in today’s political environment. In the
end, a victory margin of 56 percent to DeVos’ 42 percent is about as clear a
mandate as one will ever see in a Michigan gubernatorial race.
Nationwide, a clear discomfort with Republican candidates brought about
major changes in the country’s political landscape. Much like the sweep in
1994 for the GOP, Democrats were able to recapture majority control of the
U.S. House of Representatives in a mid-term election environment that rarely
favors a sitting President’s party. Michigan incumbents all held their seats
with the exception of the 9th district, left open by Joe Schwarz following
his August primary loss to Republican Tim Walberg. Walberg beat Sharon
Renier, the Democratic candidate, by approximately 10,000 votes.
In 2007, the Democratic Party will hold 234 seats in the U.S. House against
the Republican’s 201 (with an error margin of +/- 4 seats, pending official
certification); a dramatic shift from the 233 Republican seats, 201
Democratic seats, and 1 independent going into Election Day.
As many expected, majority control in the U.S. Senate was too close to call
the morning after November 7th. Late on November 8th, Montana election
officials announced that Democrat John Tester defeated incumbent Republican
Conrad Burns by a very slim margin The remaining seat in Virginia, still
undecided at the time, was eventually reported as having been won by
Democratic challenger Jim Webb, ousting the incumbent Republican George
Allen. Webb and Allen were dead-locked in what had been the most publicized
race in the country. With all results in, the Democrats will hold a majority
in the U.S. Senate, 51-48, with Senator Joe Lieberman holding the one
independent seat.
U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow handily defeated current Oakland County Sheriff
Mike Bouchard in her first re-election bid since taking the seat alongside
Carl Levin six years ago.
In the surprise of the night, Democrats are celebrating success in the
State House of Representatives after taking over control for the first
time in eight years. The current Republican majority of 58-49 (with three
vacant seats) will turn into a 59-52 Democrat control in January when the
new representatives take office.
Three sitting Republican incumbents were ousted by democratic challengers in
races where spending approached the level of statewide campaigns. Republican
Rep. David Farhat (Muskegon), Leslie Mortimer (Horton) and Rick Baxter
(Jackson) were given early retirement by Democratic challengers Mary
Valentine, Mike Simpson and Martin Griffin, respectively.
Democrats picked up four more in open seats – some of which were not even on
the Republican’s list as vulnerable to Democratic victory. Democrat Kate
Elbi earned the right to represent Michigan’s 56th House District (Monroe)
by defeating Republican John Manor; Republican Tim Doyle was surprisingly
beat by Democratic candidate and Grand Rapids Commissioner Robert Dean (75th
District); and in the real stunners, Democrats Terry Brown and Marc
Corriveau defeated Republicans John Hunt and Mark Abbo (a CPA) in the
84th and 20th House Districts, respectively.
Other close races ultimately won by incumbents include: Democratic Rep. Gary
McDowell in the Upper Peninsula’s 107th District over challenger Jay Duggan,
Republican Rep. David Law’s success in holding off challenger Democrat Lisa
Brown, and Democrat Kathy Angerer’s (known as one of Michigan’s hardest
campaigners) no-surprise victory over Republican challenger Matt Milosch.
In the State Senate, there were less surprises as the majority stayed
in the hands of the Republicans; however, the Democrats were successful in
tightening that majority to 21-17 (the current split is 22-16) by picking up
one seat.
Pundits statewide viewed six races as “in-play,” however; the lone
Democratic pick-up was in Wayne County’s 6th District where incumbent State
Senator Laura Toy was unable to hold-off the challenge of Democratic State
Rep. Glenn Anderson.
Republicans were victorious in several open seats. In a race not called
until early Wednesday morning, former Republican State Rep. John Pappageorge
was successful in his bid to defeat Democrat Andy Levin, son of U.S.
Congressman Sander Levin, in the 13th District (Oakland County). Republicans
also won the open 32nd District race to replace term-limited Sen. Mike
Goschka. In that race, Rep. Roger Kahn defeated Democrat Rep. Carl Williams.
In the Monroe-area 17th District, former Republican State Rep. Randy
Richardville surprised no one with a dominant victory.
Incumbents where able to secure the Republican’s hold on the majority be
defeating close challenges in the Muskegon area’s 34th District (incumbent
Sen. Jerry Van Woerkom over former Democratic Rep. Julie Dennis) and
Kalamazoo’s 20th Senate District as Sen. Tom George (R-Texas Twp.) edged
Rep. Alexander Lipsey (D-Kalamazoo).
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November/December 2006
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