November/December 2006 Leaders' Edge PRINT

Legislative & Regulatory
Election Results Belie Predictions as Power Shifts to Democrats
 

As close as Michigan’s gubernatorial race was considered to be by both state and national experts, the actual results of the November 7th election doesn’t speak to such predictions. In an economic environment ripe for a power shift, Republican challenger Dick DeVos was unsuccessful in convincing Michigan voters that his plan for restructuring the state’s economy was superior to Governor Jennifer Granholm’s.

The incumbent Governor was able to grab a statistically significant lead in the polls in the final weeks leading up to the election. Throughout October, Granholm held near double-digit leads in nearly every poll; in most respects, an insurmountable margin in today’s political environment. In the end, a victory margin of 56 percent to DeVos’ 42 percent is about as clear a mandate as one will ever see in a Michigan gubernatorial race.

Nationwide, a clear discomfort with Republican candidates brought about major changes in the country’s political landscape. Much like the sweep in 1994 for the GOP, Democrats were able to recapture majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in a mid-term election environment that rarely favors a sitting President’s party. Michigan incumbents all held their seats with the exception of the 9th district, left open by Joe Schwarz following his August primary loss to Republican Tim Walberg. Walberg beat Sharon Renier, the Democratic candidate, by approximately 10,000 votes.

In 2007, the Democratic Party will hold 234 seats in the U.S. House against the Republican’s 201 (with an error margin of +/- 4 seats, pending official certification); a dramatic shift from the 233 Republican seats, 201 Democratic seats, and 1 independent going into Election Day.

As many expected, majority control in the U.S. Senate was too close to call the morning after November 7th. Late on November 8th, Montana election officials announced that Democrat John Tester defeated incumbent Republican Conrad Burns by a very slim margin The remaining seat in Virginia, still undecided at the time, was eventually reported as having been won by Democratic challenger Jim Webb, ousting the incumbent Republican George Allen. Webb and Allen were dead-locked in what had been the most publicized race in the country. With all results in, the Democrats will hold a majority in the U.S. Senate, 51-48, with Senator Joe Lieberman holding the one independent seat.

U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow handily defeated current Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard in her first re-election bid since taking the seat alongside Carl Levin six years ago.

In the surprise of the night, Democrats are celebrating success in the State House of Representatives after taking over control for the first time in eight years. The current Republican majority of 58-49 (with three vacant seats) will turn into a 59-52 Democrat control in January when the new representatives take office.

Three sitting Republican incumbents were ousted by democratic challengers in races where spending approached the level of statewide campaigns. Republican Rep. David Farhat (Muskegon), Leslie Mortimer (Horton) and Rick Baxter (Jackson) were given early retirement by Democratic challengers Mary Valentine, Mike Simpson and Martin Griffin, respectively.

Democrats picked up four more in open seats – some of which were not even on the Republican’s list as vulnerable to Democratic victory. Democrat Kate Elbi earned the right to represent Michigan’s 56th House District (Monroe) by defeating Republican John Manor; Republican Tim Doyle was surprisingly beat by Democratic candidate and Grand Rapids Commissioner Robert Dean (75th District); and in the real stunners, Democrats Terry Brown and Marc Corriveau defeated Republicans John Hunt and Mark Abbo (a CPA) in the 84th and 20th House Districts, respectively.

Other close races ultimately won by incumbents include: Democratic Rep. Gary McDowell in the Upper Peninsula’s 107th District over challenger Jay Duggan, Republican Rep. David Law’s success in holding off challenger Democrat Lisa Brown, and Democrat Kathy Angerer’s (known as one of Michigan’s hardest campaigners) no-surprise victory over Republican challenger Matt Milosch.

In the State Senate, there were less surprises as the majority stayed in the hands of the Republicans; however, the Democrats were successful in tightening that majority to 21-17 (the current split is 22-16) by picking up one seat.

Pundits statewide viewed six races as “in-play,” however; the lone Democratic pick-up was in Wayne County’s 6th District where incumbent State Senator Laura Toy was unable to hold-off the challenge of Democratic State Rep. Glenn Anderson.

Republicans were victorious in several open seats. In a race not called until early Wednesday morning, former Republican State Rep. John Pappageorge was successful in his bid to defeat Democrat Andy Levin, son of U.S. Congressman Sander Levin, in the 13th District (Oakland County). Republicans also won the open 32nd District race to replace term-limited Sen. Mike Goschka. In that race, Rep. Roger Kahn defeated Democrat Rep. Carl Williams. In the Monroe-area 17th District, former Republican State Rep. Randy Richardville surprised no one with a dominant victory.

Incumbents where able to secure the Republican’s hold on the majority be defeating close challenges in the Muskegon area’s 34th District (incumbent Sen. Jerry Van Woerkom over former Democratic Rep. Julie Dennis) and Kalamazoo’s 20th Senate District as Sen. Tom George (R-Texas Twp.) edged Rep. Alexander Lipsey (D-Kalamazoo).